The Fear

Ever since I decided to retire next year I’ve been getting scared occasionally. This is usually associated with me starting thought loops ranging from pushing back my separation date a few months for increased compensation, to thinking about not leaving and instead angling for a better dayshift gig. Then the thought loop completes; I remember I really don’t want to stay. I remember we’ve got backup to the backup plans, and that I’m tired of taking the uber safe route(at least financially), instead of taking on a bit of risk to try and make my life a whole lot better. The downside is there, yes, but it’s minimal. The potential upside is huge.

Much of my recent fear is CAPE related. From my rough understanding, it’s only been higher before the dot com crash, and we’ve already surpassed the height that occurred right before the great depression. So basically the whole market thing, where all my money be, is way overvalued. I’ve heard arguments that this is all new normal. Then I hear guys like ERN remind us that’s what people said the last time before the market took a dive. I’m generally accepting the idea that shit is going to go down either right when I separate, or shortly thereafter. And that it’s a very real possibility we’ll be in for big bear territory for like a decade after. Not a big deal, my wife will continue to work and her salary should easily cover our expenses, right? So my pot of market will be left to coast for quite some time, and will hopefully be on the upswing when both of us leave work permanently. Plus I’m not actually planning on leaving paid work forever; I totally expect to do what many FI peeps do and stumble into some sort of paid thing within a few years. Maybe even back to more conventional work if I get really bored. Problem with this is that all those nice thoughts above are still tied to the market, which may plummet. My wife might lose her job. I might not be able to find anything that makes money. I think these things and I lose some sleep.

It would be much simpler to keep working another five years and get that pension. Then I’d be safe. Or so I say. But then I remember this thought loop is all fear driven. I’m scared. I really really really don’t want to keep working the job. I had to flip from lateshift to day shift twice this month, and the depression came back, hard. It was misery embodied in a cloud of fuck. I go to work and I feel like I’m swimming through tar, just trying to stay awake the last four hours of my shift. I see people in my profession getting killed at least weekly. I struggle to get days off as I must always ensure we’re staffed 365-that means if I’m off someones got to be covering. It’s a constant annoyance. I deal with squables above and below my spot in the chain of command, and I grow tired of being a shitty therapist. 

Memory smacks me with the realization that even if I stuck it out for the pension, that doesn’t guarantee I’d stop being scared. Our pension is based on that same market thing, and is far from perfect.  It’s likely that even though it has some inflation protection built in, it will likely get  diminished by anything more than average inflation. Realization also hits that the fear will likely be another hedonic treadmill. I can keep working, and get some more security, but I’ll probably still be scared. I’m just kicking the can down the road. Do I really want to put up with five more years of this just to deal with the same problem then?

No. Fuck no. So let’s get back to reality. Yes, the market will go down. But I have enough to cover basic expenses at a 3.31% SWR without my wife’s income, given my current balance. I also have the VA, which even if my benefits get cut significantly, they would still cover at least 20% of my expenses(which I don’t include in my calculations, and just consider them gravy). My wife is smack dab in the middle of her company’s experience ladder, receives high reviews consistently, and her field is directly involved with the manufacture of pharmaceuticals. I don’t think she’s going to lose her job anytime soon. During the last few recessions her company did just fine. And we could easily cut our expenses by a third by eliminating child care, which is about to be significantly reduced next year as our oldest starts kindergarten. So I think we’re going to be ok when things go down. Oh yeah, my job? Yeah cops have been leaving the job right and left, and -suprise-suprise- recruitment has been well below keeping up with attrition at most agencies, even before the troubles last year. So absolute worst case, I think I’ll be able to go back if I must. 

But mostly, I really want to spend more time with my kids and my wife. I want to take them to the  park on a saturday morning without feeling like a sleepwalking zombie. I want to get regular sleep on a normal person schedule, which I know from experience reduces the occurrence of depression episodes*. I want some more time to work on me, to figure out what I truly want to do next. 

The fear is there, and it’s real. It will probably never go away. But I recognize it for what it is. The price of doing something I should have done long ago. The price of taking a risk; of betting on me. The price of making life better. I suppose it’s time for me to pay up.

*yes, I’ve sought help for this, and have continued to do so. Thanks for caring.